I am not a expert on statistics, but I have had a few courses in statistical analysis and critical thought, and something is not adding up. I would greatly appreciate it if someone (anyone) had an answer to this, and could explain it to me. Let me begin by using an illustration (as I do so often). If, hypothetically speaking, 10,000 people moved into the city where I live (current population about 15,000), then you would expect the population to grow, right? Even accounting for the usual number of people who move out of a city in a given time period, an influx of that size would be noticed in the overall numbers, right? Let us imagine for a moment, that after that influx of 10,000 into a population of 15,000, that a census was done and it was found that the current population was 14,000. You would stop and ask, "what?!" That does not seem to make much sense, does it?
Compare that with our current "pandemic". There is a statistic called Crude Death Rate ("CDR") that gives the numbers per 1,000 people that die in a given time period. As a reference point, the CDR in 1919 (at the height of the Spanish Flu) was about 17 (17 people per every 1,000 in the world died that year). At the peak of the Black Plague, the CDR was estimated at about 500 (i.e. 50% of the world's population). In 2019, the CDR for the entire world was 7.8. In 2020 (after and including the onset of Covid), the CDR for the entire world (i.e. including all deaths for any reason whatsoever) is estimated that it will reach 7.7 (go look it up).
If we compare that with America, the numbers are only a bit different. In 2019 the CDR for America was 8.8, but the current number for the year of 2020 so far is 8.3. Am I missing something here? Seeing these numbers made me ask a question: how many deaths are occurring for things like heart attacks, cancer, lung disease, etc. Interestingly, the totals for those common fatalities are all down recently. This cannot be due to Covid. It is not as though a spread of a deadly virus suddenly cures tons of people of common fatal conditions.
If Covid is killing as many people as we are told, then we would expect even a small increase in the CDR, would we not? Yet, both worldwide and in America there is a decrease, not an increase. Someone is not telling us something here. We might presume that if people were traveling less, that it might decrease the numbers of death by car accident, but it would not impact the physical ailments that take people's lives.
Therefore, what is going on? I would expect with almost a million deaths to the "novel Coronavirus" (not to mention all the supposed suicides and other deaths caused by the despair that Covid has led to), that the CDR would go up; even just a little bit. Yet, that does not appear to be the case. If we throw into the mix all of these recent admissions that people have been "fudging the numbers" (i.e. calling certain deaths Covid, when that was not the actual cause), then something is not right. As my Grandma once said, "something stinks and it ain't the septic tank".
Consider it this way: in late 2019 things are going along as usual; people are dying at the normal CDR of 7.8 per 1000. Then a new virus shows up and begins taking lives in addition to those already dying of all the other maladies. That does not lead to a decrease in deaths (a CDR of 7.7), it leads to an increase in deaths. If, somehow, someone can explain how it works that Covid leads to less deaths in the world, then how is that a bad thing? A virus shows up and some people die of it rather than from other causes, but the end result is that less people are dying overall; that does not sound like something to run in terror from.
Without a clear explanation of why there are "so many people dying of Covid" and yet less people dying overall than last year before Covid, we really need to keep our eyes open. It appears that we are being lied to, and that someone is using this for a less-than-godly purpose. We have known that civil governments have lied to us in the past, but we do not always know the reasons. Whatever it may be, we need to persevere in our faith at this time. We need to recognize that there is a good possibility that someone is preparing to catch us off guard.
Whatever comes against us, if our faith is strong, then we can endure. If our faith is weak, we will give in to the wicked rulers and follow their lead. Will you stand fast? How will you respond when they encourage you to deny Christ? How will you respond when they demand that you deny Christ? You might save your life if you deny Him, but your eternal state will not be so pleasant.
Then they will deliver you up to tribulation, and put you to death; and you will be hated by all nations for my name’s sake. And then many will fall away, and betray one another, and hate one another. And many false prophets will arise and lead many astray. And because wickedness is multiplied, most men’s love will grow cold. But he who endures to the end will be saved (Matthew 24:9-13).
